According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) automotive and light commercial vehicle sales have shown a very positive growth in the month of August.

A lot of the this growth can by due to buyers trying to to avoid the CO2 new car emissions tax. Aggregate industry sales at 46 377 units had registered an improvement of 12 502 vehicles or 36,9% compared to the 33 875 vehicles sold during the corresponding month in 2009.

Aggregate export sales, whilst down in volume terms by 15,7% on the previous month of July 2010, had registered strong gains during August, 2010 in relation to the very low base figure of the corresponding month in 2009 when exports had been severely affected as a result of the impact of the global financial and economic crisis at the time. Overall, out of the total NAAMSA reported industry sales of 40 235 vehicles, 80,3% or 32 302 units represented dealer / retail sales, 13,4% represented sales to the car rental industry, 3,3% represented sales to government and 3,0% industry corporate fleet sales.

Aggregate industry new car sales during August, 2010 were at the higher end of expectations assisted by a substantial buy ahead by consumers to avoid the CO2 new car emissions tax which came into effect on 1st September, 2010. New cars sales had also been boosted by strong demand from the car rental industry. In the event, August 2010 new car sales at 33 541 units reflected an improvement of 11 128 cars or 49,6% compared to the 22 413 new cars sold by the industry during August, 2009. This represented the highest monthly new car market since January, 2008.

Moreover, the selling rate of new cars per day remained robust. Sales of industry new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and minibuses at 10 856 units during August, 2010 reflected a improvement of 878 units or 8,8% compared to the 9 978 units sold during the corresponding month last year. New light commercial vehicle sales were only marginally up on the previous month of July, 2010.

August, 2010 sales of vehicles in the medium and heavy truck segments of the industry had registered improvements and at 587 units and 1 393 units, respectively, had recorded an increase of 47 units or 8,7%, in the case of medium commercials, and a gain of 449 units or 47,6%, in the case of heavy trucks and buses – compared to the corresponding month last year. Export sales of South African produced vehicles during August, 2010 at 19 603 vehicles reflected a gain of 10 575 units or an improvement of 117,1% compared to the 9 028 vehicles exported during August last year when export sales had been extremely depressed as a result of the global economic crisis.

Year to date new vehicle exports at 149 636 units reflected an improvement of 48 944 vehicles exported or 48,6% compared to the 100 692 export sales during the corresponding eight months of 2009. However, August, 2010 export sales showed a decline of 3 651 vehicles or 15,7% from the 23 254 vehicles exported during July, 2010 which was attributable to the strike action at the industry’s assembly plants during the second half of August, 2010.

Further production disruption was currently being experienced at most of the vehicle manufacturing plants due to the strike in the automotive component industry. The effect of the ongoing strike action would undermine and compromise the industry’s already fragile track record as a reliable supplier of automotive products, vehicles and components, to international markets. Besides the loss of production, turnover and profit – prolonged industrial action could translate into employment losses. The 5,5% decline in interest rates since end 2008, stable new vehicle prices, continuing improvements in loan finance approval rates and pent up replacement demand – had continued to support the new car market. However, ongoing uncertainty about the strength and sustainability of the global economy could impact negatively on volume growth over the medium term, particularly in the case of export sales. Other domestic economic performance indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index and private sector credit extension, suggested that domestic economic conditions going forward would remain challenging.

Over the balance of 2010, the rate of growth in new vehicle sales was anticipated to moderate. Particularly, the growth rate in new car sales is expected to decline in the months following the introduction of the CO2 new car tax at the beginning of September, 2010. Export sales should reflect strong gains, statistically, relative to the very low base of 2009. Ultimately, the performance of the industry would remain a function of the direction of interest rates and the domestic economy as well as the performance of the global economy and international markets.

Please download August sales report.pdf

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Wilhelm Lutjeharms

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